From Deterministic to Random Models: An Analysis of the New Spanish Overtaking Traffic Law  

作　　者：Enrique Castillo José Duato Javier Girón Enrique Castillo;José Duato;Javier Girón(Spanish Royal Academy of Engineering, Don Pedro, Madrid, Spain;Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences, Valverde, Madrid, Spain)

机构地区：[1]Spanish Royal Academy of Engineering, Don Pedro, Madrid, Spain [2]Spanish Royal Academy of Sciences, Valverde, Madrid, Spain

出　　处：《Open Journal of Statistics》2023年第1期74-111,共38页统计学期刊（英文）

摘　　要：The purpose of the research is to analyze the new Spanish law of Traffic, which no longer permits exceeding by up to 20 km/hour the generic speed limits when overtaking on conventional roads. In this research, deterministic and random models are developed to analyze the associated safety risks. The deterministic model highlights the importance of dimensional analysis and provides dimensionless abacuses to analyze the problem. Next, Bayesian networks and Bayesian models are used to build a random model from the previous one, providing a general method to convert deterministic into random models. In addition, the problems of ignoring the dimensions of the variables and parameters are discussed, a common mistake to be corrected. Some examples and multidimensional graphics illustrate the huge reduction in safety and the need to review the existing end of prohibition signs, most of which must be removed. Shortly, the research results show that the distance required for overtaking with safety increases drastically.The purpose of the research is to analyze the new Spanish law of Traffic, which no longer permits exceeding by up to 20 km/hour the generic speed limits when overtaking on conventional roads. In this research, deterministic and random models are developed to analyze the associated safety risks. The deterministic model highlights the importance of dimensional analysis and provides dimensionless abacuses to analyze the problem. Next, Bayesian networks and Bayesian models are used to build a random model from the previous one, providing a general method to convert deterministic into random models. In addition, the problems of ignoring the dimensions of the variables and parameters are discussed, a common mistake to be corrected. Some examples and multidimensional graphics illustrate the huge reduction in safety and the need to review the existing end of prohibition signs, most of which must be removed. Shortly, the research results show that the distance required for overtaking with safety increases drastically.

关 键 词：Bayesian Network Modelling OpenBUGS Weibull Distribution 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]