A High-Resolution Modeling Strategy to Assess Impacts of Climate Change for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean  

作　　者：Robert Oglesby Clinton Rowe Alfred Grunwaldt Ines Ferreira Franklyn Ruiz Jayaka Campbell Luis Alvarado Francisco Argenal Berta Olmedo Alejandro del Castillo Pilar Lopez Edwards Matos Yosef Nava Carlos Perez Joel Perez Robert Oglesby;Clinton Rowe;Alfred Grunwaldt;Ines Ferreira;Franklyn Ruiz;Jayaka Campbell;Luis Alvarado;Francisco Argenal;Berta Olmedo;Alejandro del Castillo;Pilar Lopez;Edwards Matos;Yosef Nava;Carlos Perez;Joel Perez(Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA;Climate Change and Sustainability Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC, USA;Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia;University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica;Instituto Meteorológico Nacional Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica;Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Honduras Dirección General de Aeronáutica Civil, Tegucigalpa, Honduras;Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá;Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC), Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá;Unidad de Análisis Meteorológico, Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá;Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, Mexico City, Mexico;National Weather Service, MARN, San Salvador, El Salvador)

机构地区：[1]Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA [2]Climate Change and Sustainability Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington DC, USA [3]Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia [4]University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica [5]Instituto Meteorológico Nacional Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica [6]Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Honduras Dirección General de Aeronáutica Civil, Tegucigalpa, Honduras [7]Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá [8]Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC), Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá [9]Unidad de Análisis Meteorológico, Empresa de Transmisión Eléctrica Paname?a, Ciudad de Panamá, Panamá [10]Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, Mexico City, Mexico [11]National Weather Service, MARN, San Salvador, El Salvador

出　　处：《American Journal of Climate Change》2016年第2期202-228,共27页美国气候变化期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are low-latitude regions at risk for the effects of climate change. Global climate models provide large-scale assessment of climate drivers, but, at a horizontal resolution of 100 km, cannot resolve the effects of topography and land use as they impact the local temperature and precipitation that are keys to climate impacts. We developed a robust dynamical downscaling strategy that used the WRF regional climate model to downscale at 4 - 12 km resolution GCM results. Model verification demonstrates the need for such resolution of topography in order to properly simulate temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult to evaluate, being highly variable in time and space. Overall, a 36 km resolution is inadequate;12 km appears reasonable, especially in regions of low topography, but the 4 km resolution provides the best match with observations. This represents a tradeoff between model resolution and the computational effort needed to make simulations. A key goal is to provide climate change specialists in each country with the information they need to evaluate possible future climate change impacts.

关 键 词：Regional Climate Models Dynamical Downscaling Strategy Mesoamerica and Caribbean Climate Change 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]