How Accurately Contemporary Models Can Predict Monsoons?  

作　　者：V. Brahmananda Rao Sergio H. Franchito Clovis M. E. Santo S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna Julio P. R. Fernandez 

机构地区：[1]Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, INPE, Sã o José dos Campos, Brazil [2]Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatanam, India

出　　处：《American Journal of Climate Change》2018年第1期97-113,共17页美国气候变化期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.Seasonal changes exhibit climate changes, so models can predict future climate change accurately only if they can reproduce seasonal cycle accu-rately. Further, seasonal changes are much larger than the changes even in long period of centuries. Thus it is unwise to ignore large ones compared to small climate change. In this paper, we determine how accurately a suite of ten coupled general circulation models reproduce the observed seasonal cycle in rainfall of the tropics. The seasonal cycles in rainfall of global tropics are known as monsoons. We found that the models can reasonably reproduce the seasonal cycle in rainfall, thus are useful in climate prediction and simulation of global monsoons.

关 键 词：CLIMATE CHANGE MONSOONS Seasonal CHANGE Tropical South AMERICA and India Rainfall Coupled General Circulation MODELS Projections of Future CLIMATE IPCC MODELS 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]