Modelling of Sorghum (<i>Sorghum bicolor</i>) Growing Areas under Current and Future Climate in the Sudanian and Sahelian Zones of Mali  

作　　者：L. Traoré O. D. Bello F. Chabi I. Balogoun I. Yabi M. Y. Issifou E. L. Ahoton A. Togola A. Saïdou L. Traoré;O. D. Bello;F. Chabi;I. Balogoun;I. Yabi;M. Y. Issifou;E. L. Ahoton;A. Togola;A. Saïdou(Integrated Soil and Crop Management (ISCM) Unit, Soil Sciences Laboratory, School of Plant Production Sciences and Techniques, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin;Laboratoire d’Agro-Physio-Génétique et de Biotechnologie végétale, Institut Polytechnique Rural de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée (IPR/IFRA) de Katibougou, Katibougou, Mali;Ecole de Gestion et de Production Végétale et Semencière (EGPVS), Université Nationale d’Agriculture (UNA), Kétou, Bénin;Pierre PAGNEY Laboratory “Climate, Water, Ecosystem and Development”, University of Abomey-Calavi, Faculty of Letters, Arts and Human Sciences, Department of Geography and Spatial Planning, Cotonou, Benin;Cartography Laboratory (LaCarto), Institute of Geography, Land Management and Environment (IGATE), University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Abomey-Calavi, Benin)

机构地区：[1]Integrated Soil and Crop Management (ISCM) Unit, Soil Sciences Laboratory, School of Plant Production Sciences and Techniques, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin [2]Laboratoire d’Agro-Physio-Génétique et de Biotechnologie végétale, Institut Polytechnique Rural de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée (IPR/IFRA) de Katibougou, Katibougou, Mali [3]Ecole de Gestion et de Production Végétale et Semencière (EGPVS), Université Nationale d’Agriculture (UNA), Kétou, Bénin [4]Pierre PAGNEY Laboratory “Climate, Water, Ecosystem and Development”, University of Abomey-Calavi, Faculty of Letters, Arts and Human Sciences, Department of Geography and Spatial Planning, Cotonou, Benin [5]Cartography Laboratory (LaCarto), Institute of Geography, Land Management and Environment (IGATE), University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Abomey-Calavi, Benin

出　　处：《American Journal of Climate Change》2021年第2期185-203,共19页美国气候变化期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Climatic variability is one of the main constraints of agriculture in Mali, which will certainly affect long-term sorghum yields. The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). Therefore, 11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (<em>Sorghum bicolor</em>) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Sorghum environmental data and points of occurrence were obtained from AfriClim and GBIF databases, respectively. The correlations carried out and the Jackknife test allowed us to identify variables that contributed more to the performance of the model. Overall, in the Sudanian zone, the suitable area for sorghum production which currently represents 37% of the area of the district of Koulikoro will increase up to 51% by 2050 considering the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5). Furthermore, considering the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable zones for sorghum production will experience a decrease of 10%. In the Sahelian zone, the suitable zones for sorghum production that represent 55% of San district area considering the RCP 2.5 scenario will experience a decline of 24% by 2050 considering both the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It is suggested to carry out investigations on potential sorghum yield prediction in both study areas in order to identify suitable production areas of the crop in the near future (2050) and long term (2100) as adaptation strategies and resilience of farmers to climate c<em></em>hange.Climatic variability is one of the main constraints of agriculture in Mali, which will certainly affect long-term sorghum yields. The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). Therefore, 11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (<em>Sorghum bicolor</em>) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Sorghum environmental data and points of occurrence were obtained from AfriClim and GBIF databases, respectively. The correlations carried out and the Jackknife test allowed us to identify variables that contributed more to the performance of the model. Overall, in the Sudanian zone, the suitable area for sorghum production which currently represents 37% of the area of the district of Koulikoro will increase up to 51% by 2050 considering the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5). Furthermore, considering the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable zones for sorghum production will experience a decrease of 10%. In the Sahelian zone, the suitable zones for sorghum production that represent 55% of San district area considering the RCP 2.5 scenario will experience a decline of 24% by 2050 considering both the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It is suggested to carry out investigations on potential sorghum yield prediction in both study areas in order to identify suitable production areas of the crop in the near future (2050) and long term (2100) as adaptation strategies and resilience of farmers to climate c<em></em>hange.

关 键 词：Modeling Maxent Model SORGHUM Climatic Scenarios Sudan-Sahel Region MALI 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]