机构地区：[1]International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (CIPMA-Chair Unesco), Université d’Abomey-Calavi, UAC, Cotonou, Bénin [2]Laboratoire de Physique du Rayonnement (LPR), Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, UAC, Cotonou, Bénin [3]Département de Physique, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université Nationale des Sciences, Technologies, Ingénierie et Mathématiques (UNSTIM), Abomey, Bénin [4]Agence Nationale de la Météorologie du Bénin, Meteo, Bénin
出 处：《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》2022年第1期31-42,共12页大气和气候科学（英文）
摘 要：The understanding of the long-term trend in climatic variables is necessary for the climate change impacts studies and for modeling several processes in environmental engineering. However, for climatic variables, long-term trend is usually unknown whether there is a trend component and, if so, the functional form of this trend is also unknown. In this context, a conventional strategy consists to assume randomly the shape of the local trends in the time series. For example, the polynomial forms with random order are arbitrarily chosen as the shape of the trend without any previous justification. This study aims to <span style="font-family:Verdana;">1</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) estimate the real long-term nonlinear trend and the changing rate of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">the yearly high temperature among the daily minimum (YHTaDMinT) and maximum temperatures (YHTaDMaxT) observed at Cotonou city, </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) find out for these real trend and trend increment, the best polynomial trend model among four trend models (linear, quadratic, third-order and fourth-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">order polynomial function). For both time series, the results show that YHTaDMinT and YHTaDMaxT time series are characterized by nonlinear and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">monotonically increasing trend. The trend increments present differen</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">t phases in their nonmonotone variations. Among the four trend estimations models, the trend obtained by third-order and fourth-order polynomial functions exhibits a close pattern with the real long-term nonlinear trend given by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN). But, the fourth-order polynomial function is optimal, therefore, it can be used as the functional form of trend. In the trend increment caseThe understanding of the long-term trend in climatic variables is necessary for the climate change impacts studies and for modeling several processes in environmental engineering. However, for climatic variables, long-term trend is usually unknown whether there is a trend component and, if so, the functional form of this trend is also unknown. In this context, a conventional strategy consists to assume randomly the shape of the local trends in the time series. For example, the polynomial forms with random order are arbitrarily chosen as the shape of the trend without any previous justification. This study aims to <span style="font-family:Verdana;">1</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) estimate the real long-term nonlinear trend and the changing rate of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">the yearly high temperature among the daily minimum (YHTaDMinT) and maximum temperatures (YHTaDMaxT) observed at Cotonou city, </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">) find out for these real trend and trend increment, the best polynomial trend model among four trend models (linear, quadratic, third-order and fourth-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">order polynomial function). For both time series, the results show that YHTaDMinT and YHTaDMaxT time series are characterized by nonlinear and </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">monotonically increasing trend. The trend increments present differen</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">t phases in their nonmonotone variations. Among the four trend estimations models, the trend obtained by third-order and fourth-order polynomial functions exhibits a close pattern with the real long-term nonlinear trend given by the Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN). But, the fourth-order polynomial function is optimal, therefore, it can be used as the functional form of trend. In the trend increment case
关 键 词：Long-Term Trends Polynomial Trend Models Trend Increment ICEEMDAN Extrema Temperature
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