Verification of Mongolian Cyclone-Induced Snowstorm Model Forecast in Jilin Province, China  

作　　者：Dongxue Fu Xueyan Yang Ning Wang Yao Yao 

机构地区：[1]Jilin Provincial Observatory, Changchun, China

出　　处：《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》2017年第8期17-26,共10页地球科学和环境保护期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Situation field forecast and rainfall forecast in typical numerical forecast models including EC (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), t639 (T639 Global Forecast System) and Japanese model were verified by set statistics and TS (Threat Score) scoring based on 8 cases of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm in Jilin Province in this paper. As shown by the results, for the forecast of Mongolian cyclone location and intensity, EC has significantly higher accuracy than Japanese model and t639, and there is a high likelihood that it forecasts the southerly cyclone location, relatively fast movement and comparatively weak intensity within 72 hours;for snowfall forecast, Japanese model shows significantly higher accuracy than other models, especially it has obviously stronger ability to forecast the heavy rainfall above snowstorm than other models, while WRF model (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) has strong forecast ability of normal snowfall;for normal snowfall, the 72-hour missing forecast rate is higher than false forecast rate in all the models.Situation field forecast and rainfall forecast in typical numerical forecast models including EC (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), t639 (T639 Global Forecast System) and Japanese model were verified by set statistics and TS (Threat Score) scoring based on 8 cases of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm in Jilin Province in this paper. As shown by the results, for the forecast of Mongolian cyclone location and intensity, EC has significantly higher accuracy than Japanese model and t639, and there is a high likelihood that it forecasts the southerly cyclone location, relatively fast movement and comparatively weak intensity within 72 hours;for snowfall forecast, Japanese model shows significantly higher accuracy than other models, especially it has obviously stronger ability to forecast the heavy rainfall above snowstorm than other models, while WRF model (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) has strong forecast ability of normal snowfall;for normal snowfall, the 72-hour missing forecast rate is higher than false forecast rate in all the models.

关 键 词：MONGOLIAN CYCLONE SNOWSTORM Numerical FORECAST VERIFICATION 

分 类 号：P4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]