Influence of Climatic Changes and Anthropogenic Activities on the Distribution and Habitats of Senegalia senegal in Niger: A Forecast and Ecological Analysis  

作　　者：Abdoul Kader Soumaila Sina Idrissa Soumana Amadou Garba Ali Mahamane Abdoul Kader Soumaila Sina;Idrissa Soumana;Amadou Garba;Ali Mahamane(Garba Mounkaila Laboratory, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey, Niamey, Niger;National Institute of Agronomic Research of Niger (INRAN), Niamey, Niger)

机构地区：[1]Garba Mounkaila Laboratory, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey, Niamey, Niger [2]National Institute of Agronomic Research of Niger (INRAN), Niamey, Niger

出　　处：《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》2024年第11期29-40,共12页地球科学和环境保护期刊（英文）

摘　　要：The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the current and future spatial distribution of areas suitable for the growth of Senegalia senegal, a forest species of significant agro-ecological and socio-economic importance. To achieve this objective, the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model was utilized, incorporating species presence points alongside bioclimatic variables. To project future distributions, three climatic models-CCCMA, HadCM3, and CSIRO were employed under the A2 scenario to predict the species’ distribution by the year 2050. Currently, habitats highly favorable for the conservation of the species are situated in the Sahelo-Sudanian and Sudanian zones, accounting for 6.81% of the national territory. All models forecast a substantial increase in habitats highly favorable for the future conservation of S. senegal, with a total expected growth of 448.9%. Conversely, moderately favorable and unfavorable habitats are predicted to decrease by 106.26% and 78.59%, respectively. These findings provide crucial data for the long-term conservation strategy of this species, which holds significant ecological and agronomic potential for the Sahelian region.The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the current and future spatial distribution of areas suitable for the growth of Senegalia senegal, a forest species of significant agro-ecological and socio-economic importance. To achieve this objective, the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model was utilized, incorporating species presence points alongside bioclimatic variables. To project future distributions, three climatic models-CCCMA, HadCM3, and CSIRO were employed under the A2 scenario to predict the species’ distribution by the year 2050. Currently, habitats highly favorable for the conservation of the species are situated in the Sahelo-Sudanian and Sudanian zones, accounting for 6.81% of the national territory. All models forecast a substantial increase in habitats highly favorable for the future conservation of S. senegal, with a total expected growth of 448.9%. Conversely, moderately favorable and unfavorable habitats are predicted to decrease by 106.26% and 78.59%, respectively. These findings provide crucial data for the long-term conservation strategy of this species, which holds significant ecological and agronomic potential for the Sahelian region.

关 键 词：Modeling Maximum Entropy Suitable Habitat Senegalia senegal Distribution NIGER 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]