Estimating the Frequency, Magnitude and Recurrence of Extreme Earthquakes in Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea  

作　　者：Ali Hassan Baaqeel Said Ali El- Quliti Yahya Ali Daghreri Sultan Abdullah Bin Hajlaa Hadi Hussain Al- Yami Ali Hassan Baaqeel;Said Ali El- Quliti;Yahya Ali Daghreri;Sultan Abdullah Bin Hajlaa;Hadi Hussain Al- Yami(Health, Safety and Environment, Economic Cities Ports, King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia;Department of Industrial Engineering, King Abdul-Aziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;Crisis and Disasters Management Team, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;Tides and Notice to Mariners Department, General Commission for Survey, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;Health Affairs, Saudi National Guard, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia)

机构地区：[1]Health, Safety and Environment, Economic Cities Ports, King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia [2]Department of Industrial Engineering, King Abdul-Aziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia [3]Crisis and Disasters Management Team, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia [4]Tides and Notice to Mariners Department, General Commission for Survey, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia [5]Health Affairs, Saudi National Guard, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

出　　处：《Open Journal of Earthquake Research》2016年第2期135-152,共18页地震研究（英文）

摘　　要：Humans coexist with extreme events all the time, only when the intensity of the event becomes greater than a certain level there is a resulting disaster. Small earthquakes occur all of the time with no adverse effects. Only large earthquakes cause disasters. Statistical analysis reveals that larger events occur less frequently than small events. In a year, we would have many values for the events;the annual maximum was the greatest of those values. Within an annual series, only the largest value per year is allowed, even if an additional significant peak occurs. As the magnitude of a hazardous increases, the frequency of occurrence (how often a given magnitude is equaled or exceeded) decreases. Thus, major disasters result from a small number of large events that rarely occur. A plot of recurrence intervals versus associated magnitudes produces a group of points that also approximates a straight line on semi-logarithmic paper. Therefore, past records of earthquakes at the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea for months from May, 1999 to Feb, 2016 are used to predict future conditions concerning the annual frequency, the return period, the percentage probability for each event, and the probability of a certain-magnitude earthquake occurring in the region during any period.Humans coexist with extreme events all the time, only when the intensity of the event becomes greater than a certain level there is a resulting disaster. Small earthquakes occur all of the time with no adverse effects. Only large earthquakes cause disasters. Statistical analysis reveals that larger events occur less frequently than small events. In a year, we would have many values for the events;the annual maximum was the greatest of those values. Within an annual series, only the largest value per year is allowed, even if an additional significant peak occurs. As the magnitude of a hazardous increases, the frequency of occurrence (how often a given magnitude is equaled or exceeded) decreases. Thus, major disasters result from a small number of large events that rarely occur. A plot of recurrence intervals versus associated magnitudes produces a group of points that also approximates a straight line on semi-logarithmic paper. Therefore, past records of earthquakes at the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea for months from May, 1999 to Feb, 2016 are used to predict future conditions concerning the annual frequency, the return period, the percentage probability for each event, and the probability of a certain-magnitude earthquake occurring in the region during any period.

关 键 词：EARTHQUAKES Gulf of Aqaba Northern Red Sea MAGNITUDE RECURRENCE 

分 类 号：P31[天文地球—固体地球物理学]