Capability of TEC correlation Analysis and Deceleration at Propagation Velocities of Medium-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances: Preseismic Anomalies before the Large Earthquakes  

作　　者：Ken Umeno Ryo Nakabayashi Takuya Iwata Minghui Kao Ken Umeno;Ryo Nakabayashi;Takuya Iwata;Minghui Kao(Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics, Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan)

机构地区：[1]Department of Applied Mathematics and Physics, Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

出　　处：《Open Journal of Earthquake Research》2021年第4期105-137,共33页地震研究（英文）

摘　　要：Data analysis method (CRA, hereafter) to correlate multiple TEC anomaly signals has detected pre-seismic anomalies before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Iwata & Umeno 2016), the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Iwata & Umeno 2017) and the 2016 Tainan earthquake (Goto <i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">et al</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. 2019). However, a critical argument said that those anomalies detected by CRA would not </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">be pre-seismic anomalies published by Journal of Geophysical Re</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">search-Space Physics (126), 2021 (JGR-SP (126), hereafter). In this paper, we would point out its incorrect use of statistical anomalies in evaluating CRA as the following points: CRA is shown to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to amplify pre-seismic TEC’s small anomaly signals with synchronizing and correlating multiple GNSS receivers’ data. We proved again that pre-seismic anomalies certainly exist before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake with additional data analysis. In particular, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> temporal anomaly, deceleration at propagation velocities of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTID, hereafter) before the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake captured by CRA (Iwata & Umeno 2017) is elucidated as pre-seismic anomalies. Furthermore, we proposed a physical model to predict that 35 m/s change at MSTID propagation velocities estimated by TEC’s CRA requires 0.58</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">×</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">10</span>^{<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">&#45;</span>3</span>}<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> V/m electric field in the F Layer ionosphere. Contrary to Data analysis method (CRA, hereafter) to correlate multiple TEC anomaly signals has detected pre-seismic anomalies before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Iwata & Umeno 2016), the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Iwata & Umeno 2017) and the 2016 Tainan earthquake (Goto <i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">et al</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. 2019). However, a critical argument said that those anomalies detected by CRA would not </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">be pre-seismic anomalies published by Journal of Geophysical Re</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">search-Space Physics (126), 2021 (JGR-SP (126), hereafter). In this paper, we would point out its incorrect use of statistical anomalies in evaluating CRA as the following points: CRA is shown to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to amplify pre-seismic TEC’s small anomaly signals with synchronizing and correlating multiple GNSS receivers’ data. We proved again that pre-seismic anomalies certainly exist before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake with additional data analysis. In particular, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">a</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> temporal anomaly, deceleration at propagation velocities of medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTID, hereafter) before the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake captured by CRA (Iwata & Umeno 2017) is elucidated as pre-seismic anomalies. Furthermore, we proposed a physical model to predict that 35 m/s change at MSTID propagation velocities estimated by TEC’s CRA requires 0.58</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">×</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">10</span>^{<span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">&#45;</span>3</span>}<span style="font-family:Verdana;"> V/m electric field in the F Layer ionosphere. Contrary to

关 键 词：CRA TEC MSTID Preseismic Ionospheric Anomaly The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake 

分 类 号：P31[天文地球—固体地球物理学]