Forecasting the Epicenter Area of a Future Strong Earthquake  

作　　者：Giulio Riga Paolo Balocchi Giulio Riga;Paolo Balocchi(Independent Researcher, Lamezia Terme, Italy;Independent Researcher, Modena, Italy)

机构地区：[1]Independent Researcher, Lamezia Terme, Italy [2]Independent Researcher, Modena, Italy

出　　处：《Open Journal of Earthquake Research》2024年第3期133-149,共17页地震研究（英文）

摘　　要：It is clear from the literature data that the geometric characteristics of the seismogenic source are directly related to the nucleation of their strong earthquakes. Our study starts from the observation of the proximity relationship between the epicenter of a strong earthquake and the surface trace of the seismogenic source. The proposed model is based on the mathematical analysis of seismicity falling within an area, through a polynomial function to determine a curve. The experimental results of our model confirm that 97% of the epicenters of strong earthquakes are located near the concavities or at the inflection points of the polynomial curve. Only 3% of strong earthquakes are located at the edges of the analyzed areas, where the number of data is not significant. The proposed model makes it possible to locate, with good approximation, the areas most likely to be the site of future strong earthquakes.It is clear from the literature data that the geometric characteristics of the seismogenic source are directly related to the nucleation of their strong earthquakes. Our study starts from the observation of the proximity relationship between the epicenter of a strong earthquake and the surface trace of the seismogenic source. The proposed model is based on the mathematical analysis of seismicity falling within an area, through a polynomial function to determine a curve. The experimental results of our model confirm that 97% of the epicenters of strong earthquakes are located near the concavities or at the inflection points of the polynomial curve. Only 3% of strong earthquakes are located at the edges of the analyzed areas, where the number of data is not significant. The proposed model makes it possible to locate, with good approximation, the areas most likely to be the site of future strong earthquakes.

关 键 词：Epicenter Mainshock SEQUENCE ASPERITY 

分 类 号：P31[天文地球—固体地球物理学]