Using the Markov Chain for the Generation of Monthly Rainfall Series in a Semi-Arid Zone  

作　　者：Mouelhi Safouane Nemri Saida Jebari Sihem Slimani Mohamed Mouelhi Safouane;Nemri Saida;Jebari Sihem;Slimani Mohamed(Laboratoire Hydrologie-CES, Ariana, Tunisie;Institut National de Recherches en Génie Rural, Eaux et Forêt (INRGREF), Ariana, Tunisie;Laboratoire des Sciences et Techniques de l’Eau, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, Tunis-Mahrajène, Tunisie)

机构地区：[1]Laboratoire Hydrologie-CES, Ariana, Tunisie [2]Institut National de Recherches en Génie Rural, Eaux et Forêt (INRGREF), Ariana, Tunisie [3]Laboratoire des Sciences et Techniques de l’Eau, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, Tunis-Mahrajène, Tunisie

出　　处：《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》2016年第2期51-65,共15页现代水文学期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Numerous methodologies have been developed in the literature for the generation of rain. However, in semi-arid areas where the irregularity of rain is contrasted, the question of the applicability of these models is still relevant. The objective of this article is to propose a development method of stochastic generator of monthly rainfall series. The present work is based on the modeling of the occurrence and the quantity of rain in a separate way. The occurrence is treated in two stages. The first step considers the Markov chain according to the occurrence of annual statements (dry, average and wet). The second step uses the monthly rankings. The amount of rain is calculated based on historical series according to the monthly rank and the annual statement noted. This method is applied to rainfall data recorded at five rainfall stations in semi-arid region of Central Tunisia. The usual and conventional statistical tests of the generated series have shown the validity of this method.Numerous methodologies have been developed in the literature for the generation of rain. However, in semi-arid areas where the irregularity of rain is contrasted, the question of the applicability of these models is still relevant. The objective of this article is to propose a development method of stochastic generator of monthly rainfall series. The present work is based on the modeling of the occurrence and the quantity of rain in a separate way. The occurrence is treated in two stages. The first step considers the Markov chain according to the occurrence of annual statements (dry, average and wet). The second step uses the monthly rankings. The amount of rain is calculated based on historical series according to the monthly rank and the annual statement noted. This method is applied to rainfall data recorded at five rainfall stations in semi-arid region of Central Tunisia. The usual and conventional statistical tests of the generated series have shown the validity of this method.

关 键 词：Stochastic Generation Rainfall Series Markov Chain SEMIARID Central Tunisia 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]