PERTURBATION

作品数：943被引量：1252H指数：13
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An Initial Perturbation Method for the Multiscale Singular Vector in Global Ensemble Prediction被引量：1
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2024年第3期545-563,共19页Xin LIU Jing CHEN Yongzhu LIU Zhenhua HUO Zhizhen XU Fajing CHEN Jing WANG Yanan MA Yumeng HAN 
supported by the Joint Funds of the Chinese National Natural Science Foundation (NSFC)(Grant No.U2242213);the National Key Research and Development (R&D)Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No. 2021YFC3000902);the National Science Foundation for Young Scholars (Grant No. 42205166)。
Ensemble prediction is widely used to represent the uncertainty of single deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) caused by errors in initial conditions(ICs). The traditional Singular Vector(SV) initial pertur...
关键词：multiscale uncertainty singular vector initial perturbation global ensemble prediction system 
The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Perturbations on Subseasonal Predictions of North Atlantic Oscillation Events
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第12期2242-2261,I0009-I0015,共27页Guokun DAI Mu MU Zhe HAN Chunxiang LI Zhina JIANG Mengbin ZHU Xueying MA 
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42288101,41790475,42005046,and 41775001).
The influence of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) on the subseasonal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) event is investigated by utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model version 4. The optimal Arcti...
关键词：optimal Arctic SIC perturbation NAO event subseasonal prediction CNOP approach 
Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model被引量：1
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2023年第3期501-513,共13页Qian ZOU Quanjia ZHONG Jiangyu MAO Ruiqiang DING Deyu LU Jianping LI Xuan LI 
jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42225501, 42105059)
Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model,we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics.Four initial perturb...
关键词：ensemble prediction nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV) ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF) coupled air-sea models 
Ocean Response to a Climate Change Heat-Flux Perturbation in an Ocean Model and Its Corresponding Coupled Model被引量：2
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2022年第1期55-66,共12页Jiangbo JIN Xiao DONG Juanxiong HE Yi YU Hailong LIU Minghua ZHANG Qingcun ZENG He ZHANG Xin GAO Guangqing ZHOU Yaqi WANG 
jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA19020202);Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LYDQC010);the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB42000000);the open fund of State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography(Grant No.QNHX2017);supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41706028)。
State-of-the-art coupled general circulation models(CGCMs)are used to predict ocean heat uptake(OHU)and sealevel change under global warming.However,the projections of different models vary,resulting in high uncertain...
关键词：ocean heat uptake Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ocean general circulation model coupled general circulation model 
CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 GMMIP Tier-1 and Tier-3 Experiments被引量：6
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2020年第1期18-28,共11页Bian HE Yimin LIU Guoxiong WU Qing BAO Tianjun ZHOU Xiaofei WU Lei WANG Jiandong LI Xiaocong WANG Jinxiao LI Wenting HU Xiaoqi ZHANG Chen SHENG and Yiqiong TANG 
funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91737306, 91637312, 41730963, 91837101, 91637208, 41530426);the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant QYZDY-SSW-DQC018)
The Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System(FGOALS-f3-L)model datasets prepared for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)Global Monsoons Model Interco...
关键词：global monsoon CMIP6 GMMIP Tibetan Plateau orographic perturbation 
Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations被引量：13
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2019年第2期231-247,共17页Zhenhua HUO Wansuo DUAN Feifan ZHOU 
jointly sponsored by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFC1506402);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41475100 and 41805081);the Global Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Development Program of the China Meteorological Administration (GRAPES-FZZX2018)
This paper preliminarily investigates the application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs)–based ensemble forecast technique in MM5(Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–Nati...
关键词：ENSEMBLE FORECAST initial PERTURBATION CONDITIONAL nonlinear optimal PERTURBATION TROPICAL CYCLONE 
Impact of Soil Moisture Uncertainty on Summertime Short-range Ensemble Forecasts被引量：1
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2018年第7期839-852,共14页Jiangshan ZHU Fanyou KONG Xiao-Ming HU Yan GUO Lingkun RAN Hengchi LEI 
supported by the National Key R&D Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (2017YFC1502103);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305099 and 41305053)
To investigate the impact of soil moisture uncertainty on summertime short-range ensemble forecasts（SREFs）, a fivemember SREF experiment with perturbed initial soil moisture（ISM） was performed over a northern Chin...
关键词：ensemble forecast soil moisture perturbation probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast 
The Effects of Land Surface Process Perturbations in a Global Ensemble Forecast System被引量：1
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2016年第10期1199-1208,共10页Guo DENG Yuejian ZHU Jiandong GONG Dehui CHEN Richard WOBUS Zhe ZHANG 
supported by the National Fundamental(973) Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430100);the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201506005);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41475097,41075079,41275065 and 41475054)
Atmospheric variability is driven not only by internal dynamics, but also by external forcing, such as soil states, SST, snow, sea-ice cover, and so on. To investigate the forecast uncertainties and effects of land su...
关键词：PERTURBATION land surface processes GEFS ensemble transform with rescaling 
Ensemble Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles from AIRS被引量：3
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2014年第3期559-569,共11页ZHANG Jie Zhenglong LI Jun LI Jinglong LI 
financially supported by the Meteorological Foundation of China (Grant No.GYHY 201406015);a project funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD);open project of the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME1104)
ABSTRACT Satellite-based observations provide great opportunities for improving weather forecasting. Physical retrieval of atmo spheric profiles from satellite observations is sensitive to the uncertainty of the firs...
关键词：ensemble retrieval PERTURBATION EIGENVECTORS PDF AIRS 
Anatomizing the Ocean's Role in Maintaining the Pacific Decadal Variability
《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2014年第3期611-623,共13页Jia-Yuh YU Cheng-Wei CHANG 
ABSTRACT The role of ocean dynamics in maintaining the Pacific Decadal Variability （PDV） was investigated based on simulation results from the Parallel Ocean Program （POP） ocean general circulation model develope...
关键词：Pacific decadal variability term balance analysis perturbation heat budget equation 
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