云模型在区域灾害风险评估中的应用研究  

Application of Cloud Model in Regional Disaster Risk Assessment

作　　者：程磊[1,2] 程志楷 蒋方[1,2] 王泽华 赵昊 CHENG Lei;CHENG Zhikai;JIANG Fang;WANG Zehua;ZHAO Hao(School of safety Science and Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003;Collaborative Innovation Center of Coal Work Safety and Clean High Efficiency Utilization,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003;Xuchang cigarette factory of Henan China Tobacco Industry Co.,Ltd,Xuchang 461000)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,焦作454003 [2]河南理工大学煤炭安全生产与清洁高效利用省部共建协同创新中心,焦作454003 [3]河南中烟工业有限责任公司许昌卷烟厂,许昌461000

出　　处：《科技促进发展》2022年第2期180-187,共8页Science & Technology for Development

基　　金：2019年国家科技部重点支持项目(U1904210):煤矿重大灾害隐蔽致灾因素风险识别、预警及应急管理研究,负责人:程磊

摘　　要：本研究将云模型用于区域灾害风险评估,运用层次分析方法(AHP)和云模型方法消除评价指标的模糊性和随机性带来的影响,建立了针对自然灾害风险、工业企业风险源、人员密集场所、交通运输和其他方面的风险评价指标体系,并成立专家组打分,再以此为依据运用云模型得到区域灾害风险综合云图,然后将其与标准云图作对比以确定区域风险等级,最后运用该模型对河南临汝镇的灾害风险进行了评估。结果表明:临汝镇整体处于一般风险水平,评估结果与实际相符,验证了该评估方法的可靠性和可操作性,它可作为提高区域安全生产水平的一种科学手段。Cloud model was applied to regional disaster risk assessment.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the cloud model methods were used to eliminate the impact of fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indicators,and then an evaluation index system for natural disaster risk,risk sources of industrial enterprises,densely populated places,transportation and others was established,and an expert group was established to score for it.On this basis,the cloud model was used to obtain the regional disaster risk cloud map,and compared it with the standard cloud map to determine the regional risk level.Finally,the model was used to evaluate the disaster risk of Linru town of Henan province.The results showed that Linru town is at the general risk level as a whole,and the assessment results were consistent with the reality,thus the reliability and operability of the assessment method were verified and this assessment method canbe used as a scientific means to improve the level of regional safety production.

关 键 词：云模型 安全生产 风险评估 区域风险 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X913