客货车通行费敏感性差异及替代效应——来自阶段性免费通行期间交通量变化的经验证据  

Differences of Sensitivity of Tolls and Substitution Effects Between Cars and Trucks——Empirical evidence from changes of traffic flow data during the periodic toll-free

作　　者：梁鸿旭(译)[1] 周健[1] 桑美英[1] 

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院交通信息中心

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第8期41-44,62,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：交通运输部交通运输战略规划政策项目:交通运输经济运行重点热点问题跟踪研究(2022-2024年)(2022-21-1)

摘　　要：开展公路通行费对车流量影响研究,可以为评估优化现行通行费政策、提升高速公路使用效率、进一步有效降低物流成本提供决策参考。在对2020年国内收费公路免收通行费政策实施前后车辆线路选择行为变化的实证观察基础上,通过结构断点回归和向量自回归模型,测算了通行费变化对客、货车线路选择行为影响及其相互作用传导机制。得出以下结论:一是结合需求弹性分析,当前高速公路收费标准明显超过完全市场定价的可能性较小,且客车收费标准较货车相对偏低;二是从相互影响情况看,随着车流量提升,客车会率先对货车产生净挤出;三是随着拥挤程度上升,客车出行线路选择将更倾向于减少预期行驶时间,而货车则更重视降低时间的不确定性,造成货车行驶高速公路盈余下降速度更快。基于此,应有序开展高速公路收费标准调整优化评估工作,进一步拓宽高速公路差异化收费范围,精准优化差异化收费费率。The research on the impact of expressway tolls on traffic flow can provide decision-making reference for evaluating and optimizing the current toll policy,further improving the efficiency of the usage of expressway,and more effectively reducing the logistics cost.The issues related to the changes of China's traffic flow between expressway and highway,during which toll-free policy was introduced in 2020 thus been considered.The direct impacts of toll-free policy on changes of route selection behaviors of cars and trucks between expressway and highway and on their internal interaction mechanism were estimated,with approaches of linear models with structural breakpoints and VAR models applied.The following conclusions are thus drawn:Firstly,according to elasticity analysis,the price setting by current toll policy is unlikely much higher than that of the market'equilibrium price',and the charging standard for cars is relatively lower than that for trucks.Secondly,trucks on expressway tend to crowded out by cars in marginal while the denser the traffic flows become.Thirdly,the behavior choice of cars seems prefer the route decreasing time spent in average,while trucks would prefer that of decreasing the time uncertainty,when the traffic become crowded,and this feature leads to the marginal decline rate of surplus of truck faster than that of cars.Thus,some further evaluations and optimizations of toll policy would worthy to be considered,with which expanded scopes and accurately schemed rates of discount could be introduced.

关 键 词：公路收费政策 交通量 断点回归 向量自回归 行为选择 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济]