基于ARIMA模型的上海虹桥枢纽客流数据分析预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Passenger Flow Data of Shanghai Hongqiao Hub Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：吴震亚 WU Zhenya(Shanghai Hongqiao Hub Construction and Development Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 201207,China)

机构地区：[1]上海虹桥枢纽建设发展有限公司,上海201207

出　　处：《交通与运输》2022年第S01期315-320,共6页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会社会发展领域科研项目(20dz1202804)资助

摘　　要：上海虹桥枢纽客流量的变化及组成是研究城市交通流量全局运作规律的基础.首先,对虹桥交通枢纽客流数据构成进行分析;其次,基于ARIMA模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model)及灰色关联分析模型对疫情下差异化枢纽客流量数据进行预测、关联分析.由关联分析结果可知,该模型对于上海虹桥枢纽客流量的预测数据具有一定的可靠性,预测数据在一定程度上为上海虹桥枢纽客流中心建设发展提供理论支撑.The variation and composition of passenger flow of Shanghai Hongqiao hub are the basis of studying the overall operation law of urban traffic flow,and then manage and analyze the traffic data of Shanghai Hongqiao hub.In this paper,passenger flow data composition of Hongqiao transportation hub was analyzed,and then the passenger flow data of different hubs were predicted and correlated with each other based on ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model)and grey correlation analysis model.The results of correlation analysis show that the model has certain reliability to forecast data of passenger flow of Shanghai Hongqiao hub.To some extent,the forecast data provide theoretical support for the construction and development of Shanghai Hongqiao Hub passenger flow center.

关 键 词：上海虹桥 枢纽客流量 多元回归 ARIMA模型 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]