洪灾综合风险分析方法讨论(Ⅰ)——基于集对分析理论  

Method Discussion on Integrated Risk Analysis of Flood Disaster——Based on Set Pair

作　　者：李继清[1] 张玉山[2] 王丽萍[1] 纪昌明[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利水电工程系,北京102206 [2]国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京100053

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2007年第8期43-49,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579019);武汉大学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(whu2005B018)

摘　　要：随着社会经济的发展及人们对洪水灾害认识的深入,洪灾风险的研究从单一风险转向综合风险,将是防洪减灾理论发展的必然趋势.根据洪灾风险的特性,引入信息的整体性原理,并应用集对分析理论对洪灾风险系统进行确定不确定分析,首次提出了洪灾系统风险的同异反分析方法.该方法将干旱、洪涝及其风险信息综合体现在洪水灾害系统的联系度中,从而为进一步开展详尽的综合风险分析奠定了理论基础.It is bound to be a trend in flood control and calamity reduction that the study direction of flood disaster system will be diverted into synthetic risk.Based on the identical-different-opposite synthetic analysis method of flood disaster risk(conceptual model),attributing the influence of uncertain coefficient I on risk of corresponding order and taking further appropriate expand or transformation,this paper established that the framework of simulative model for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster.The feasible approach is primary gained for integrated risk analysis of flood disaster.

关 键 词：洪水灾害 综合风险 信息整体性原理 集对分析理论 同异反分析 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]