中国上市公司业绩增长持续性及市场预测  

China listed company's performance sustainable growth and market speculation

作　　者：瞿敏[1] 陈小悦[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《特区经济》2006年第8期87-89,共3页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：上市公司的业绩增长能力对公司价值具有非常显著的影响,投资者希望找到市场上具有持续稳定成长性的公司。本文考察了公司业绩的增长水平,业绩增长的持续性以及市场对公司业绩增长的预测能力。本文发现公司业绩增长不具有持续性,呈现较大的波动性,投资者无法通过公司历史业绩增长情况预测未来业绩增长。市场对公司的未来业绩增长的预测能力较弱,只能预测大约未来3年时间的业绩增长情况,对更长时间的业绩增长无法预测。这可能与中国股市政策变动频繁,上市公司存在较多利润操纵行为有关。The growth rate of operating performance in future affects the value of firm significantly,and it is crucial for investors to make investment decisions.The investors expect to find firms which have persistent growth of operating performance.This paper investigated the level and persistence in growth of operating performance,and tested for the market prediction in growth.There is no persistence in growth and investors are not able to predict growth in future through the historical growth.There is low predictability with market valuation ratios,such as P/E and P/B.It is possibly caused by frequent alteration of policy and earnings management.

关 键 词：业绩增长 持续性 市场预测 

分 类 号：F279.2[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]