基于灰色理论的电厂设备状态趋势预测研究  

Research on condition prediction of power plant equipment based on the gray-theory

作　　者：郭翔[1] 孙万云[1] 陈晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学自动化系,河北保定071003

出　　处：《仪器仪表用户》2006年第5期6-7,共2页Instrumentation

摘　　要：本文提出了基于灰色预测理论的机械设备状态监测方法,重点介绍了灰色预测理论的内容及其应用;其根据设备自身历史数据建立动态微分方程,并预测自身的发展,具有数据量小、计算简单、预测准确的特点。通过实例证明,该方法是有效的。Based on the gray theory,a novel prediction method of condition to detect the performance of mechanical equipment, was proposed in the paper,which mostly introduced definition and applicat ion of the gray theory.According to the own historical data of equipment,a dynamic differential equation is established to predict its own trend and the characters of the gray predictive model GM(1,1) are simple calculation and accurate prediction with smaller amount of data.The method is proved to be effective by example.

关 键 词：灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 状态预测 

分 类 号：TP277[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]