基于灰色马尔柯夫预报模型地下水动态预报研究  

Study Groundwater Dynamic Forecast Based on Grey Markov Model

作　　者：孙金丹 于兴杰[2] 畅建霞[2] 黄强[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西煤炭地质局131大队,陕西韩城715400 [2]西安理工大学水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《地下水》2008年第1期1-3,11,共4页Ground water

摘　　要：随着社会经济发展,地下水超采日益严重,为了科学地保护和合理利用地下水,本研究讨论了地下水动态预报方法。针对GM(1,1)灰色预报和马尔柯夫预报的优缺点,提出了灰色与马尔柯夫相耦合的灰色马尔柯夫预报模型,最后以河南某地区地下水埋深为例,验证了该方法的可行性。With the development of social economy,the exploitation of groundwater is serious.For scientific protection and reasonable utilization of groundwater,the article studies and discusses groundwater dynamic-forecast method.Aiming at the advantages and disadvantages of grey GM(1,1) forecast and Markov forecast model,a new method,called grey Markov model,is based on analyzing grey theory and Markov theory.This forecast model is identified by taking forecast of groundwater depth in Henan province and gets that it...

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 “马氏性”检验 灰色马尔柯夫模型 地下水动态预报 

分 类 号：P641.74[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]