吉林省二代粘虫预测模式研究  

Study of Forecast Models of the Second Generation Oriental Armyworm Mythimna separata (Walker)in Jilin Province

作　　者：孙雅杰[1] 高月波[1] 陈瑞鹿[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省农业科学院植物保护研究所,吉林公主岭136100

出　　处：《吉林农业科学》2002年第z1期1-3,共3页Journal of　Jilin Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：以我国东部粘虫 (MythimnaseparataWalker)年发生第二代成虫公主岭地面诱蛾量和同期降雨量的数据为预测因素 ,该世代成虫繁殖的危害种群在吉林省的发生面积为预测目标 ,应用回归相关法研究发生预测的数学模型 ,用Basic语言计算机程序计算并进行分析与拟合 ,提出了吉林省二代粘虫预测模式。The forecast elements were chosen from the data of field catches and rainfall of Gongzhuling and the forecast targets were determined on the outbreak and damage areas of Jilin province,which belong to the yearly second generation adults and their next generation larvae of oriental aormyworm Mythimna separata (Walker)in east China.The regression correlation method was applied to study the forecast mathematics formula,and the computing,analysis and fitting were carried out by computer program of Basic language.The forecast models of the second generation oriental armyworm of Jilin province were put forwarded.

关 键 词：粘虫 预测预报 预测模型 

分 类 号：S433.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]