深圳地区空气污染潜势预报的研究  

A Study on Forecast of Air Pollution Potential in Shenzhen

作　　者：张蕾 江崟 

机构地区：[1]深圳市气象台,广东深圳518008

出　　处：《广东气象》2001年第1期1-3,共3页Guangdong Meteorology

摘　　要：本文系统地介绍了目前深圳市气象台研制的深圳市空气污染潜势预报方法 ,本方法基于在污染源一定的情况下 ,未来空气污染状况主要取决于大气环流形势演变和局地相关的气象要素以及天气形势的思想 ,应用以统计加权法为主、数值预报为辅的方法 ,根据主观预报和数值预报给出的气象要素预报值和天气形势 ,制定相关因子的加权值表 ,最后通过非加权因子的修正 ,得出对未来 2 4小时空气污染潜势预报 ,目前这一方法已经过业务上实践应用 。A method of Shenzhen air pollution potential forecasting is presented.The procedure is based on the concept that the sources of air pollution are constant during the predicting period and the condition of air pollution is mainly controlled by the variation of atmospheric general circulation and local meteorological elements.The weights of the correlative elements,which come from the statistical results and numerical model outputs,are fixed.Those weighted elements with some modification then come at the next 24 hours air pollution potential forecasting. This method has been operationally used for some time with good performance.

关 键 词：空气污染 统计加权 潜势预报 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]