基于辽宁产业集群建设的人力资源需求预测——ARIMA模型的运用  

Demands Prediction of Human Resources in Liaoning Industrial Clusters Building Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：张平[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学文法学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第1期36-41,共6页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：全国教育科学"十一五"规划教育部重点课题(DIA08330)

摘　　要：文章通过对基于产业集群建设的人力资源需求量的调查,运用ARIMA模型对辽宁产业集群的人力资源需求趋势进行预测分析,研究发现人力资源总量需求总体呈上升趋势,市场营销、技工、财会及电算化专业的需求量最大;本科学历以下的人才需求量最多。因而,未来高等教育的发展应该紧密结合产业集群建设办学;优化学科专业结构,增强高等教育与产业集群发展的协调性;调整人才培养规模和层次,提升高等教育人才资源的适应力。This paper predicts the trends of the demands of human resources based on an archival survey in Liaoning industrial clusters building by using ARIMA model.The author finds that the total demands of human resources are on the rise,the persons in marketing,mechanics,accounting and computing are most demanded,and the graduates from technical colleges are in urgent demand.It is suggested that future high education should develop according to the building of industrial clusters,strengthen the coordination of high education and industrial clusters by optimizing the structure of majors in different disciplines,and promote the adaptation of talent resources of high education by adjusting the size and level of talent cultivation.

关 键 词：产业集群 人力资源 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：C55[社会学]