现代金融危机模型的演化路径及其现实困境  

Evolutionary Path and Practical Difficulties of Currency Crisis Model

作　　者：高晨伟[1] 王选华 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院 [2]北京市人力资源研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《财会通讯（下）》2011年第12期144-148,161,共6页Communication of Finance and Accounting

摘　　要：本文系统地回顾了三代货币危机模型的假设条件和基本原理,并就历代货币危机模型的理论逻辑进行了系统分析。每一代模型都在其局部范围内解释了危机爆发的原因,在理论的形成和实践的指导方面具有现实意义。但三代模型所研究的导致危机爆发的原因都仅仅是对危机现象的表面描述,没有追寻危机原因背后的根源——资本主义制度本身。因此,西方学者只能就每次危机作出现象的解释,很难建立一套能全面预防、治理和预测各种货币危机的理论体系,因为要达到此目的,必须对资本主义制度本身进行全面考察。This paper systematically reviewed the hypothetical condition and basic principles of three generations of currency crisis model.It,simultaneously,explained theoretical logic of ancient crisis model.Each generation of models explained the reasons for the crisis within the limited scope,and it has a certain practical significance in theory formation and practice guidance.The reasons of three generations of the model,however,researched the crisis is only the description of appearance of the crisis.they neglected reasons behind the crisis— the capitalist system itself.Thus,the western scholars only explained the phenomenon of crisis,and it is difficult for them to establish a framework for comprehensive prevention,treatment and prediction of the theoretical system of the various currency crises.To achieve this purpose,it is necessary to study the capitalist system.

关 键 词：货币危机模型 演化路径 理论逻辑 现实困境 

分 类 号：F830.99[经济管理—金融学] F224