航材消耗广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型  

Generalized Weighted Functional Proportional Mean Combining Forecasting Model of Air Material Consumption

作　　者：万玉成[1] 何亚群[2] 盛昭瀚[3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096 [2]空军后勤学院三系,徐州221002 [3]南京大学管理科学与工程研究院,南京210093

出　　处：《自动化学报》2004年第4期619-623,共5页Acta Automatica Sinica

摘　　要：提出一种新的组合预测模型——广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型,并利用二次规划算法给出其加权系数的参数估计方法.同时,针对航材消耗的季节性与波动性特点,建立了航材消耗预测的灰色系统模型与神经网络模型,最后建立了基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型并以实例说明了其预测效果.A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is presented. And the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients is given by using the algorithm of quadratic programming. Meanwhile, the grey system forecasting model and the neural network forecasting model of air material consumption are proposed for its seasonal and fluctuating characteristics. Finally, the generalized weighted functional proportional mean combining forecasting model of air material consumption based on grey system and neural network is proposed and its efficiency is demonstrated by an example.

关 键 词：组合预测 函数比例平均 航材消耗 灰色系统 神经网络 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]