乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业——基于协整分析方法  

Township Enterprises' Tax Burden,Profitability and Non-agricultural Employment:A Cointegration Analysis

作　　者：孙健[1] 张春海[1] 李鹏 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029 [2]青岛市地税局黄岛分局,山东青岛255666

出　　处：《南京审计学院学报》2012年第4期38-46,共9页journal of nanjing audit university

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173038);教育部人文社科规划基金项目(10YJA790164);对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金重点项目(A20110109)

摘　　要：利用1978年至2009年的乡镇企业有关数据,采用协整检验方法、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验方法,对乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业三者之间的相互关系进行实证研究,结果表明:三者之间存在显著的长期均衡关系;安置就业和税收负担在短期内影响企业盈利情况;安置就业与企业盈利在长期内互为Granger因果关系。因此,国家应综合采取税收优惠、金融支持与政府培训等政策,以提高乡镇企业盈利水平和扩大农民非农就业。The paper selects rural enterprises data from 1978 to 2009 and uses cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test to study the relationship among the township enterprises' tax burden,profitability and non-agricultural employment.The results show that there is significant long-term equilibrium relationship among the three factors;job placement and tax burden have a short-term impact on profitability;job placement and profitability have a mutual Granger causality in a long term.Therefore,government should adopt comprehensive tax incentives,financial support and government training policy to improve rural enterprises profitability and expand non-agricultural employment.

关 键 词：农民非农就业 税收负担 盈利水平 协整分析 乡镇企业 农村剩余劳动力转移 

分 类 号：F279.243[经济管理—企业管理]