基于实物期权理论的风电项目投资评价方法研究  

Evaluation Method for Wind Power Project Investment Based on Real Options Theory

作　　者：李伟[1] 尤海侠[1] 杨强华[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学经济管理学院,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《电力学报》2012年第5期490-493,共4页Journal of Electric Power

摘　　要：由于当今社会经济政治复杂化程度加剧,传统的投资决策方法,由于没有考虑到不确定以及投资决策的灵活性而低估了投资项目的价值。实物期权法弥补了传统投资决策方法的缺陷,它可以在不确定性较高的环境下准确的评估项目的价值。应用BP神经网络算法(误差反向传播算法)来模拟期权价值的主要参数-项目价值波动率,提高实物期权方法在评价项目价值时的客观性,并应用实例进行验证。Due to the exacerbating complex economic and political level of the today's society,traditional investment decision-making methods,without taking into account the uncertainty and investment flexibility in decision-making,underestimate the value of the investment project.The real options method compensates for the defects of the traditional investment decision-making methods.It can assess the value of the project in high uncertainty environment accurately.In this paper,Error Back-propagation Training simulates the main parameters of the option value-the volatility of the value of the project,which improve the objectivity of the real options approach in evaluating the value of the project.In this aitifical,we use an example to verify the mathod.

关 键 词：电力经济 实物期权 BP神经网络 净现值 项目评估 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]