黔东南生态文明建设实验区生态效率的动态变化与预测分析  

Study on the Dynamic Change of Eco-Efficiency and Prediction in the Experimental Area of Ecological Civilization of Southeast GuiZhou

作　　者：杨廷锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]凯里学院,贵州凯里556000

出　　处：《生态经济（学术版）》2012年第1期54-57,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：凯里学院2010年规划课题(Z1008)阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：提高生态效率是实现区域可持续发展的重要切入点。为了定量地把握黔东南生态文明建设实验区的生态效率的动态变化情况以及未来发展趋势。文章对生态足迹模型和单一比率法理论和方法作简介,以及生态效率研究回顾,并采用基于生态足迹模型的单一比率法,利用1978～2010年的历史数据计算,对黔东南生态效率的动态变化和进行灰色系统预测分析。研究结果显示:黔东南1978～2010年的生态效率总体呈递增趋势,由1978年的358.535元GDP/hm2上升到2010年的4019.488元GDP/hm2,年平均净增加110.938元GDP/hm2。根据灰色系统预测结果:生态效率在2011～2025年期间呈上升趋势,并且上升速度比较快,从2011年的4258.570元GDP/hm2上升到12809.287元GDP/hm2。To improve the eco-efficiency is an important point that realizes regional sustainable development.In order to quantitatively discover the regime of the eco-efficiency and the trend of future development in this area,the theories and methods of ecological efficiency have been introduced,the ecological efficiency have been reviewed,the dynamic change of the eco-efficiency have been analyzed by means of quantitative research methods of the single ratio method about eco-footprint model according to history data that calculate from 1978 to 2010 and have been predicted in this paper.The results show that eco-efficiency emerges ladder shaped increasing tendency in the research period and from 358.535 yuan GDP/hm2 rise to 4 019.488 yuan GDP/hm2,average annual increase 110.938 yuan GDP/hm2.According to the grey forecasting results:ecological efficiency basically shows ascendant trend,from 4 258.570 yuan GDP/hm2 rise to 12 809.287 yuan GDP/hm2 during 2011 to 2025.

关 键 词：生态足迹模型 单一比率法 生态效率 生态文明建设实验区 黔东南 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F205[经济管理—国民经济]