资源环境承载力约束下的半城市化地区发展情景分析——以厦门市集美区为例  

Development Scenario Analysis of Peri-urban Area under the Constraints of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity:A Case Study of Jimei District,Xiamen City

作　　者：王进[1,2] 吝涛 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院城市环境与健康重点实验室,中国科学院城市环境研究所,福建厦门361021 [2]厦门市城市代谢重点实验室,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S1期293-296,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-450);福建省科技合作重点项目(编号:2010I0014);厦门市科技计划对台科技合作与交流基地项目(编号:3502Z20111049)

摘　　要：本文聚焦我国半城市化地区资源环境承载能力与社会、经济发展压力之间的动态关系,以厦门市集美区为案例,分析典型半城市化地区社会—经济—自然复合生态系统演变过程中主要社会经济驱动因子与生态环境限制因素的动态作用机制。运用Vensim软件建立区域复合生态系统动力学模型,模拟在资源环境承载力约束下集美区主要社会、经济和自然因素之间的动态联系,通过设定其中主要因子的变化过程,进行惯性发展、既定目标发展和保护生态环境发展3种情景分析。结果表明:在2003-2006年的惯性发展条件下,集美区的经济增长难以满足原定"十一五"计划目标;增加投资的情况下大力提高现有产业科技水平是集美区今后可持续发展的必然途径。本研究将为快速城市化地区涉及资源、环境和生态保护的相关政策、规划和管理提供科学决策依据。Focusing on the dynamic relationship between resource and environmental carrying capacity and the pressures from socioeconomic development in Chinese peri-urban area,this paper took Jimei District,Xiamen City,a typical peri-urban area as a case study to analyze the dynamic mechanism between the socioeconomic drivers and eco-environmental constraints during the evolution of the social-economic-natural complex ecosystem.A regional complex ecosystem dynamic model was developed by using Vensim software package to simulate the dynamic relationship between social,economical and natural factors under the constraints of resource and environmental carrying capacity.Three alternative scenarios,including development as usual,objective-based development and development with eco-environmental protection were discussed.The result showed that it is impossible to satisfy the goals in the original 11th Five -Year Plan under the development as usual.Promoting the scientific and technique capacity is necessary while the investment is increased.This study will provide the scientific basis for rational policy,planning,and decision making on resources,environmental and ecological conservation in rapidly urbanizing areas.

关 键 词：半城市化地区 资源环境承载力 情景分析 系统动力学 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.27