基于中国东、中、西部面板数据的碳排放和产值结构关系研究  

Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Output Value Structure Based on China's East Middle West District Panel Data

作　　者：吴振信[1] 谢晓晶[1] 王书平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第S2期31-36,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：北京市教委学科与研究生教育专项基金项目(编号:PXM2010_014212_093659);北京市属市管高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(编号:PHR20110869)

摘　　要：本文基于东、中、西部30个省市区1997-2009年的面板数据,对中国碳排放和产值结构的关联关系进行了分析。通过实证检验,选取个体固定变截距模型进行拟合。研究表明,①全国及三大地区的碳排放强度和产业结构间均存在协整关系。②产业结构和碳排放强度的影响关系显著,且呈现负相关关系,就全国来看,第一产业与第二产业比值每上升1%,碳排放强度下降0.4813%;第三产业与第二产业比值每上升1%,碳排放强度下降0.4165%。③就东、中、西部地区来看,东部地区的碳排放基数最小,碳排放强度受产业结构调整的影响最大;而中、西部地区碳排放基数较大,碳排放强度受产业结构调整的影响较小。本文认为,应当针对不同区域的具体发展情况,制定相应的区域减排政策。Based on study objects of east,middle,west districts and panel data of China's 30 provinces between 1997 and 2009,the relationship between carbon emission and output value structure was studied by establishing the entity fixed effects model.The main findings were as follows:(1)There was a long equilibrium cointegration relationship between carbon emission intensity and industrial structure.(2)There was a marked negative correlation relationship between industrial structure and carbon emission intensity.In terms of the nation-wide,when the ratio of the primary industry and the secondary indstry increased by 1%,the cabon emission intensity decreased by 0.4813%.When the ratio of the tertiary industry and the secondary indstry increased by 1%,the cabon emission intensity decreased by 0.4165%.(3) The base of carbon emission was the least in the east area,which had the greastest impact of industrial structure adjustment.However,the middle and west areas had larger carbon emission,less industrial structure adjustment effects.Based on these conclusions,low carbon policies in different districts should be made according to different situations in these areas.

关 键 词：碳排放 产值结构 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224