基于弹性系数的大兴区环境-经济预警研究  

Elastic Coefficient-Based Warning System for the Environment-economic System of Daxing District

作　　者：王妍[1] 曾维华[1] 吴舜泽[2] 贾杰林[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第S1期562-565,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家973课题(编号:2010CB955903-7);国家863课题(编号:2007AA06A404-06)

摘　　要：在环境-经济系统中,选择弹性系数对区域节能减排做预警研究,构建基于弹性系数的区域环境-经济预警系统。将该预警系统应用于实际案例中,计算了符合北京市大兴区节能减排目标要求的弹性系数区间,对区域未来的环境-经济状况进行预测和预警。在惯性发展情景下,大兴区2010年和2020年环境-经济系统处于临界状态,节能减排达标尚存在一定困难,其中SO2、COD排放是区域环境-经济安全的最大影响因素。In the environment-economic system,elastic coefficient was selected for early warning of energy saving and emission reduction,and an elastic coefficient-based warning system was set up.In the example of Daxing district of Beijing,the extent of elastic coefficient was calculated based on the request of saving and reduction of the district.In the scenario of inertial development,the environment-economic system of Daxing would be in critical state in 2010 and 2020.It would be difficult to meet the saving and reduction goal,and SO2 and COD emission would be the biggest factor that threatens the security of the district.

关 键 词：弹性系数 环境-经济预警 节能减排 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]