基于生态现代化理论的石油开发对环境和经济影响综合分析  

Ecological Modernization Theory-based Comprehensive Analysis on Environment and Economic Impact of Oil Exploitation

作　　者：朱庆华[1] 周晶淼[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理学院管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第S1期276-279,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70772085);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(No.NCET-08-0082);国家自然科学基金国际合作NSFC-JSPS协议项目(No.70911140101)资助

摘　　要：基于生态现代化理论,构建了石油开发对经济、环境和石油资源的综合影响的评价模型。根据石油开采对经济发展和环境压力的影响,基于生态现代化对我国石油的可持续发展进行阶段划分,对每一个阶段的石油、经济和环境状况进行总结,并用模型中自变量的权重体现这一时期宏观发展方向的侧重点。通过对模型中各个自变量权重的调整,对我国不同阶段的石油开采的宏观政策措施进行综合评价并提出各个阶段的政策制定、调整方向,包括对现阶段最优发展政策的比选、对未来政策可行性的分析以及对石油资源极度缺乏时期的政策选择评价,为实现资源、经济和环境共赢的最终目标提供理论依据和框架指导。The integration of the ecological concept and the exploitation of the oil resource can be an effective solution to the contradictions of the sustainable use of oil resources and the economic development as well as the conflicts between oil exploitation and environmental protection.Based on the in-depth study on Ecological Modernization Theory(EMT),we set up an evaluating model that can assess the integrated contribution of economy,environment and oil resource.According to the impact on the economic development and environmental stress by oil exploitation,we divide the sustainable development of our oil resource into different stages by taking EMT as the theoretical base in oil's sustainable development;then,for each stage,we summarize the overall circumstance of oil,economy and environment and use weights of independent variables to reflect the focus on the macro-development.By adjusting the weight of each independent variable,we comprehensively assess the macro-policies of China's oil exploitation at different stages and put forward suggestions on policy making and direction adjusting,including the comparison of the optimizing policies at current stage,the analysis on the feasibility of future policies and the assessment to the policy-choosing at the extreme shortage stage.These all will provide theoretical base and instruction for fulfilling the ultimate goal of triple-wins among resources,economy and environment.

关 键 词：生态现代化 经济 环境 石油 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]