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机构地区:[1]长江勘测规划设计研究院上海分院,上海200439
出 处:《长江流域资源与环境》2012年第S1期134-139,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基 金:上海市科学技术委员会科技攻关计划重大项目(08231200103);长江勘测规划设计研究院科研与技术创新项目(CX200829;CX200830)
摘 要:利用长江上、下游代表水文站宜昌、大通站1951~2008年逐月月均流量资料,采用线性倾向估计、非参数Mann-Kendall检验、滑动t-检验等方法,对两站9月至翌年4月(三峡蓄水期及枯季)各月多年来的流量变化趋势进行探讨,分析了流量发生突变的时间,并对各月两站流量间关系进行初步的研究。研究表明:宜昌、大通各月流量多年变化趋势基本一致,多年来,两站9~10月流量减少,1~3月流量显著增加,流量突变大多发生在20世纪80年代,流量的变化主要与水利工程的建设及流域降雨量的变化有关;宜昌、大通站两站流量存在一定的内在关系,9~10月份两站流量间关系较好,其余月份宜昌、大通两站流量的比值与大通流量间关系较好,所得关系式可初步用于流量预测。Based on the monthly runoff data of Yichang and Datong Hydrometric Stations from 1951 to 2008,which can represent runoffs of upper and downstream of the Yangtze River respectively,the runoff variation tendency from September to the next April and the years with abrupt change were analyzed,and the correlation of monthly runoff between the two stations was preliminarily studied,adopting linear tendency estimate,Mann-Kendall trend test and moving t-test method.The results indicate that runoff at the two stations decreases in September and October,but increases significantly from January to March,with abrupt change occurring mostly in the 1980 s.The runoff tendency is connected with precipitation and hydraulic construction.Good correlation of runoff is shown between the two stations in September and October,while good correlation between runoff ratio of the two stations and Datong runoff is shown in other months.The relationships can be used for the runoff prediction.
关 键 词:非参数Mann-Kendall检验 流量变化趋势 突变
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