“十一五”期间淮北市农业碳排放趋势及影响因素研究  

Analysis on Agricultural Carbon Emission Trends and Influencing Factors Decomposition of Huaibei City during Eleventh Five-Year

作　　者：张勇 黄淑玲[2] 高杨[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术中心,安徽宿州234000 [2]宿州学院地球科学与工程学院,安徽宿州234000

出　　处：《河北北方学院学报（自然科学版）》2013年第5期42-46,共5页Journal of Hebei North University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省教育厅高校优秀青年人才基金(2012SQRL208);安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目(KJ2013Z323);宿州学院科研平台开放课题(2011YKF23;2011YKF21)

摘　　要：以安徽省淮北市为例,基于农业生产中6个主要方面的碳源,对2005-2010年农业碳排放量进行了估算,发现碳排放量一直稳中有升。在此基础上,利用Kaya恒等式模型对农业碳排放影响因素进行分解。结果表明,农业经济发展水平是农业碳排放最主要的影响因素,具有较强的推动作用,累计产生15.16%的碳增量;而结构因素、效率因素、劳动力规模因素对碳排放量具有一定的抑制作用,分别累计实现14.00%、10.25%、2.53%的碳减排。最后提出促进淮北市农业碳减排的政策建议。Taking Huaibei city,Anhui province as an example,the agricultural carbon emissions in 2005-2010 were estimated based on six major aspects of the carbon source during agriculture production, finding that carbon emissions have been going up steadily.On this basis,Kaya identity model was used to decompose carbon emissions factors.The results showed that the level of agricultural economic develop-ment was the most important factor of agricultural carbon emissions,with a strong role in promoting the total 15.16% of carbon increment.And structural factors,efficiency factors,and size of the labor force factors on the carbon emissions of certain inhibition realized a total of 14.00%,10.25% and 2.53% of the carbon reduction, respectively. Finally, based on the above conclusions, recommendations on policy were put forward to promote reduction of the agricultural carbon emissions in Huaibei city.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 趋势 因素分解 Kaya恒等式 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F224