Epidemiologic analysis of a previous outbreak of bubonic plague:The first identified outbreak with bacteriological confirmation in Kobe and Osaka,Japan  

作　　者：Hiroshi Nishiura 

机构地区：[1]Theoretical Epidemiology,University of Utrecht,Yalelaan 7,3584 CL,Utrecht,The Netherlands

出　　处：《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》2009年第1期42-44,共3页亚太热带医药杂志（英文版）

摘　　要：Objective:To characterize the case fatality and estimate the symptomatic period of bubonic plague.Methods: Epidemiologic analyses of a previous outbreak of plague in Osaka and Kobe,two major port cities in Japan, from 1899-1900 were performed.In addition to date of onset of symptoms,gender,age and the date of death were extracted from the historical data.The time from onset to death(symptomatic period) was fitted to gamma distribution using the maximum likelihood method.Results:Temporal distribution revealed suspected chains of transmission of the primary pneumonic plague at the late stage of the outbreak.The case fatality of bubonic plague without specific treatment was 83.4%,and the mean time from onset to death was estimated as 4.7 days(95%confidence interval;4.0,5.5).Conclusion:Case fatality of bubonic plague without specific treatment was extremely high.The symptomatic period of bubonic plague appeared to be longer than that of pneumonic plague.Objective:To characterize the case fatality and estimate the symptomatic period of bubonic plague.Methods: Epidemiologic analyses of a previous outbreak of plague in Osaka and Kobe,two major port cities in Japan, from 1899-1900 were performed.In addition to date of onset of symptoms,gender,age and the date of death were extracted from the historical data.The time from onset to death(symptomatic period) was fitted to gamma distribution using the maximum likelihood method.Results:Temporal distribution revealed suspected chains of transmission of the primary pneumonic plague at the late stage of the outbreak.The case fatality of bubonic plague without specific treatment was 83.4%,and the mean time from onset to death was estimated as 4.7 days(95%confidence interval;4.0,5.5).Conclusion:Case fatality of bubonic plague without specific treatment was extremely high.The symptomatic period of bubonic plague appeared to be longer than that of pneumonic plague.

关 键 词：YERSINIA PESTIS Bubonic PLAGUE epidemiology statistical distribution confidence interval JAPAN 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]