基于灰色预测模型的住房反抵押贷款房屋终值测算  

Research on Housing Reverse Mortgages Terminal Value Calculated Based on Grey Prediction Model

作　　者：战松[1] 陈海鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》2014年第2期158-161,共4页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅基金项目(W2013095)

摘　　要：通过构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,将住房反抵押贷款运行中的核心风险——对所抵押房屋终值的测算,转化为对未来商品房价格的分析预测,并结合多元线性回归分析,对未来房地产价格走势作出较为理性的测算,旨在为住房反抵押贷款房屋终值测算提供一种新的思路。By building the GM( 1,1) grey prediction model,this article takes the core risk of housing reverse mortgages,i. e. measure of the terminal value of their homes,into the forecast analysis of the future commercial housing price. Then the article makes more rational calculation of the real estate prices in the future combined w ith multivariate linear regression analysis. The article hopes to provide a new thought for the calculation of housing terminal value of housing reverse mortgage.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 住房反抵押贷款 灰色预测模型 房屋终值测算 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832.45