自激励门限自回归模型下我国人口增长率的时间序列分析  

Time Series Analysis of China's Population Growth Rate Based on Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model

作　　者：陈友春[1] 朱文婕[1] 

机构地区：[1]蚌埠医学院计算机教研室,安徽蚌埠233000

出　　处：《生物数学学报》2014年第1期157-161,共5页Journal of Biomathematics

摘　　要：应用自激励门限自回归模型对我国1949年以来人口增长率的动态路径进行了模拟分析.通过估计和检验发现我国人口增长率具有明显的非线性特征,模型拟合的效果优于线性自回归模型,可以为政府决策提供更精确的数量依据.The paper builds up a SETAR model to make an analysis of China's population growth rate since 1949.It shows that the population growth rate in China has obvious nonlinear adjustment.The TAR model's effect of fitting is much better than AR model,it can provide more accurate quantitative basis for government decision-making.

关 键 词：人口增长率 非线性 自激励门限自回归 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]