Model Projections of East Asian Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario  

作　　者：Wang Hui-Jun Zhang Ying 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [2]Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2010年第3期176-180,共5页大气和海洋科学快报(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2009CB421406;the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 40821092;the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grants KZCX2-YW-Q1-02 and KZCX2-YW-Q11

摘　　要：This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.This paper addresses the ‘ice-free Arctic’ issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China’s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.

关 键 词：ice-free Arctic East Asian monsoon global warming projections 

分 类 号：P[天文地球]