突发事件影响度评价研究  

Research on the Influence Degree of Rare Event

作　　者：鞠彦兵[1] 王爱华[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京大学教育学院,北京100871

出　　处：《兵工学报》2009年第S1期150-153,共4页Acta Armamentarii

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空总局联合资助(60672180);国家自然科学基金资助(70972007)

摘　　要：提出了基于突变理论和粗集约简理论的突发事件影响度评价方法。给出了突发事件影响度的评价指标,并采用粗集约简理论将影响因素约简为最小因素集。根据突变理论的归一公式给出了突发事件影响度的量化方法。该方法可将定量、定性指标纳入同一模型中,并可避免人为确定权重的主观性。实例表明,该方法是有效和可行的。A new technique for evaluating influence degree of rare event based on catastrophe theory and rough set reduciton theory was proposed.The index set of evaluating influence degree about rare event was established and reduced to a minimum set based on rough set theory.The evaluation method of influence degree about rare event was presented based on the normalization formula of catastrophe theory.The method can incorporate qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes in a model,and avoid the subjective quantification of assessment indexes.The calculated results by an example show feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：突发事件 影响度 突变理论 粗集 

分 类 号：N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学]