十堰市非点源污染社会经济驱动力分析  

Analysis of Socio-economic Driving Force of Non-point Source Pollution in Shiyan City

作　　者：李天宏[1] 徐文佳[1] 贾振邦[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境工程系水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2009年第S1期58-64,共7页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家水专项专题(2008zx07207-006)

摘　　要：通过排污系数法计算得到十堰市2002、2004和2006三年非点源污染物流失量,结合十堰市相应年份的社会、经济统计数据,利用逐步回归方法分析了经济社会等人类活动因子与非点源污染物流失量之间的关系.研究结果表明:2002、2004和2006年十堰市总氮和总磷的流失量均呈上升的趋势,而各县(市、区)各年份存在较大的区域差异.农业产值和果园面积是总氮流失量的主要驱动因子,总磷流失量的主要驱动因子是渔业产值、农业产值和国土面积.最后提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施.The loss of non-point source pollution of Shiyan City was calculated in 2002,2004,and 2006 with the method of pollution discharge coefficient;Based on social and economic data of Shiyan City and stepwise regression analysis,the relationship between economic,social factors and non-point source pollution loss was studied.The results showed that:Pollutants of total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP)in Shiyan City showed an upward tendency and regional difference in 2002,2004,and 2006.Agricultural output value and orchard area were the main driving factors of TN loss;the output value of fishery,the output value of agriculture and land area were the main driving factors of TP loss.

关 键 词：非点源污染 社会经济驱动力 回归分析 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]