基于改进型CTM模型的道路交通量预测  

Traffic Volume Forecast Based on Improved Cell Transmission Model

作　　者：盛慧[1] 王炜[1] 胡晓健[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2009年第S1期49-52,共4页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAG13A06)

摘　　要：准确的道路交通预测是智能交通控制的可靠保障。为提高元胞传输模型(CTM模型)的适用范围和对城市道路交通的预测能力,根据CTM模型元胞间交通流的传递过程,提出了改进型CTM模型。改进型CTM模型通过引入元胞长度参数,分别建立单路段、路段汇聚、路段分流等元胞传输表达式。改进型CTM模型克服了CTM模型需要所有元胞必须统一长度的不足,提高了模型在不同长度道路中应用的适应性。仿真结果表明改进型CTM模型能够满足城市道路交通流预测要求。Accurate forecast of traffic volume is the guarantee of intelligent traffic control in the urban traffic.In order to improve the application range and capacity of urban traffic volume forecast of cell transmission model(CTM),improved CTM was proposed based on the traffic transmission process between cells in CTM.The parameter of cell length was introduced into the improved CTM to build cell transmission expressions of single section,convergence section and streaming section.This improved model overcome the defect of CTM that the lengths of all cells must be equal,so the applicability of the model in different length roads was improved.The result of the simulation indicates that the improved model could meet the requirements of the traffic flow prediction and in the urban traffic.

关 键 词：交通工程 改进型 CTM模型 交通量 预测 

分 类 号：U491.112[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]