THE FRACTAL RESEARCH AND PREDICATING ON THE TIME SERIES OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER  

作　　者：顾圣士 王志谦 程极泰 

出　　处：《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》1999年第1期84-89,共6页应用数学和力学（英文版）

摘　　要：In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictability for the monthly mean variations of the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. In the progress, the fractal dimension (D = 3.3 +/- 0.2) for the variation process rt as computed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2 x D + 1] = 7. By computing the Lyapunov index (lambda(1) = 0.863), it was indicated that the variation process is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K = 0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end, according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is made, whose data was a part cut from the sample data.In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictability for the monthly mean variations of the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. In the progress, the fractal dimension (D = 3.3 +/- 0.2) for the variation process rt as computed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2 x D + 1] = 7. By computing the Lyapunov index (lambda(1) = 0.863), it was indicated that the variation process is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K = 0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end, according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is made, whose data was a part cut from the sample data.

关 键 词：number of sunspots fractal dimension Kolmogorov entropy Lyapunov number PREDICATE 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]