城市空气污染数值预报试验  

Numerical Prediction of Air Pollution in Urban Area

作　　者：韩志伟[1] 张美根[1] 雷孝恩[1] 佟彦超[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国环境监测总站,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》1999年第3期283-290,共8页Climatic and Environmental Research

摘　　要：采用城市空气污染数值预报模式系统， 并结合天津市部分气象资料和浓度监测资料对１９９８ 年１ 月１～１５ 日的ＳＯ２、ＮＯｘ和ＴＳＰ浓度进行数值模拟和试预报。结果表明，该模式运行稳定， 计算满足预报时效要求， 对ＳＯ２和ＮＯｘ日均值预报的准确率可分别达到６４％ 和７０％ ， 对ＳＯ２逐时预报的准确率为５５％ ～６２％ ， 对ＴＳＰ预报的准确率低于ＳＯ２和ＮＯｘ。此次预报试验说明，该模式可作为城市空气污染数值预报的基本模式进行初步应用，但仍需进一步的研究。By using Urban Air Pollution Forecast Model System and observation data of meteorology and species concentration from January, 1, 1998 to January, 15, 1998, we proceed the numerical prediction of SO 2 , NO x and TSP in tianjin area for 15 days The result shows that the system has a good stability and satisfied time efficiency The accuracy rate of prediction of diurnal average concentration of SO 2 and NO x are 60% and 70%, The accuracy rate of hourly average concentration of SO 2 are 55%～62%; The accuracy rate of TSP concentration is smaller than SO 2 and NO x The prediction test shows that this model system can be used as a basic numerical tool in forcasting urban air pollution circumstance, and be developed and advanced in the future

关 键 词：空气污染 数值预报 预报时效 准确率 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]