气候的多平衡态及其转换  

The Multiple Equilibriums of Climate Systems and Their Transition

作　　者：林贤超[1] 李克让[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家计委地理研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《大气科学》1993年第6期703-712,共10页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

摘　　要：本文利用一个简单的气候模式，求得三个平衡态的全球平均温度值分别为：Ｔ１＝２４８．５Ｋ，Ｔ２＝２７１．９Ｋ和Ｔ３＝２８８．１Ｋ，其中对应于温暖时期和寒冷时期的Ｔ３和Ｔ１是稳定的。若要使现代温暖气候转变为寒冷气候，太阳常数约需比现代值减少３％；若从寒冷气候转变成温暖气候，太阳常数需增加约６．３％。这表明寒冷气候的状态要比温暖气候的状态相对稳定些。然后讨论了随机扰动对气候平衡态之间转换的作用。结果表明：In this paper, based on a zero - dimensional energy balance model, three values of global average temperature corresponding to the steady state of model are obtained: T1 = 248. 5K, T2 = 271.9 K and T3 = 288.1 K. Among these equilibriums, T1 and T3, corresponding to cold and warm climate, respectively, are stable, and T2 is unstable. If solar constant decreased by 3%, climate would change from warm state to cold state. On the other hand, if solar constant increased by 6.3%, climate would change from cold state to warm state. It indicates that the cold climate is more stable than the warm climate. The investigation of stochastic climate models shows that it is impossible to make the conversion of glacial - interglacial climate with a time scale of about 10 years only with the stochastic fluctuations of weather disturbance.

关 键 词：气候模式 多平衡态 扰动 

分 类 号：P462[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]