佛山限摩对摩托车出行特征及减排的影响分析  

Analysis of Urban Motorcycle Travel Characteristics and Emissions Reduction of Motorcycle Restriction in Foshan

作　　者：程晓梅[1,2] 刘永红[1,2] 徐伟嘉[1,2,3] 黄建彰[1] 李红霞[3] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学工学院 [2]广东省智能交通系统重点实验室 [3]中山大学先进技术研究院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2013年第S1期400-404,467,共6页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：佛山市低碳交通系统关键技术研究与应用示范(2011A080803007)

摘　　要：基于佛山市禅桂新限摩区域31个路段的流量和速度采集及COPERTⅣ模型计算得出的佛山市本地摩托车在不同道路类型上的排放因子,采用"自下而上"的机动车源排放清单编制方法,计算得到分道路类型的摩托车源污染物排放清单,并分析了限摩前后摩托车出行特征,同时,采用情景分析法评估了佛山市限摩政策产生的减排效果。结果表明:限摩后,次干道与主干道摩托车出行比例下降最明显,分别达到17.6%、13.9%,支路最小,只有1.9%;主干道各污染物的分担率最高,平均达到50%,其次是次干道,达到25%左右;即便是限摩后,佛山市摩托车出行在各种出行中所占有的比例仍超过20%,远高于国内平均水平的10%,说明佛山市居民摩托车出行比例过高。限摩后各道路类型的各种污染物的平均削减比例可达37.2%,年度变化带来的该值为35.6%,即同年度变化对比,限摩效果较明显。Basing on the survey of 31 roads in Chan Gui Xin's region of Foshan city,the vehicle flows and speed were measured for analyzing the travel characteristics of the motorcycle.Through the source intensity calculation by combining the traffic flows,emission factor with road length,the emission inventory of motorcycle was developed.Among them,the emission factors of motorcycle were calculated by using COPERT Ⅳ model.In order to estimate the emission reduction under the policy of motorcycle restriction,scenario analysis was used in the study.Experimental results indicated that the proportion of motorcycles to the all vehicles on second-class roads and main roads decreased most significantly by 17.6% and 13.9%.M oreover,the proportion of motorcycle trip in all kinds of vehicle is above 20%,which is higher than average level,10%.In addition,the average reduction rates of pollutant emissions were 37.2% and 35.6% respectively for the scenario analysis and realistic analysis,indicating that the pollutant emissions can be largely influenced by motorcycle restriction.

关 键 词：排放削减 佛山限摩政策 实验调查 情景分析法 

分 类 号：X734[环境科学与工程—环境工程]