曲周县碳平衡分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Balance on Quzhou County

作　　者：杨立[1,2] 唐柳[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]清华大学中国农村研究院,北京100084 [3]四川大学工程设计研究院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第S2期10-13,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：清华大学中国农村研究院博士后研究课题(编号:CIRS2013PD03);中国博士后基金项目(编号:2013M540974)

摘　　要：估算陆地生态系统碳源和碳汇值是碳减排的关键步骤,对于发展中国家或地区更为重要。本文通过计算曲周县2000-2011年的碳源和碳汇值,对该地区的碳平衡进行了分析。在曲周县2000-2011年能源消耗量、土地利用现状、经济状况和其他数据的基础上,通过系数法估算碳源和碳汇值。分析结果得出,在2000-2011年期间,曲周县碳源和净碳源值是快速增加的,而单位GDP碳排放值和净排放值呈减少趋势。通过灰色模型对2012-2020年期间曲周县碳源和碳汇值进行预测,并对模型进行精度检验。结果显示,通过GM(1,1)建立的预测模型足够精确,能够达到准确预测和可行的目的。预测结果显示,在2012-2020年曲周县碳排放呈现增长的趋势,碳减排面临着许多压力。最后,论文提出一些关于碳减排的科学建议,对于其他类似地区具有参考价值。Counting of terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon is a crucial step to carbon emissions reduction. It is more important for developing countries or regions. This paper analyzed the annual carbon balance of Quzhou County during 2000- 2011 by counting of carbon sources and carbon sinks. Carbon sources and carbon sinks were calculated by means of a coefficient approach based on the data of energy consumption,land use status,economic situation and others during 2000- 2011. Analysis showed that carbon sources and net carbon sources were increasing. However,carbon sources and net carbon sources per unit GDP decreased during 2000- 2011. Carbon sources and carbon sinks during 2012- 2020 were predicted by gray model,with the predicted results being verified by subsequent residual test. Result that GM( 1,1) established using prediction was the sufficiently accurate model to achieve a feasible and applicable measure. The result predicted that there would be an increase during the 2000- 2009 and carbon emissions reduction would face a lot of pressures in the future in Quzhou County. At last,This paper provided scientific suggestions on carbon emissions reduction for other similar regions.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳平衡 灰色模型 曲周县 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]