明清时期河南蝗灾时空特征及其与气候变化的联系  

Temporal-spatial characteristics of locust plague in Henan Province during Ming and Qing Dynasties and their relationship with climate change

作　　者：李钢[1,2] 刘倩[1] 杨新军[1] 颜祥[1] 黄兵兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127 [2]中国科学院地球环境研究所,陕西西安710075

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第1期66-76,共11页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目(41201190);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJCZH069)

摘　　要：利用史料记录建立了明清时期河南蝗灾数据库,进而构建了蝗灾年份序列和蝗灾县次序列,再现蝗灾发生的时空特征,探讨了蝗灾动态与气候变化的关联。结果表明:明清时期河南蝗灾平均2.4年一遇,是过去千年较为频繁的时期;1520-1530年、1580-1590年、1610-1640年、1690年和1850-1860年是河南蝗灾的5个高发期;蝗灾县次序列没有明显的递增趋势,17世纪是典型的重大蝗灾的群发期。河南蝗灾的空间分布呈现广泛但不均的特点,豫北、豫东地区是蝗灾高发区域,豫西、豫南地区则发生相对较少。小波分析显示,蝗灾爆发没有显著的周期性;蝗灾频率与规模之间存在类似古登堡-里查德关系。蝗灾在气温偏冷和偏暖时期都有可能爆发,受温度变化影响不显著;蝗灾与降水关系密切,与干旱呈正相关关系。This paper utilizes the historical records of locust plague in Henan Province during Ming and Qing Dynasties to establish the relevant database. Through the reconstruction of locust plague year sequence and locust county sequence,this study explored the temporal-spatial characteristics of locust plague,as well as its correlation with climatic change. The results illustrate that: during the Ming and Qing Dynasties,locust plague occurred once2. 4 years in Henan,which was more frequent than the past one thousand years. 1520- 1530 AD,1580- 1590 AD,1610- 1640 AD,1690AD and 1850- 1860 AD were the five high-incidence periods. There was no significant change trend in the series of county,while the 17 th century was the group-incidence period of especially large-scale locust plague. The spatial distribution was wide but uneven,with high incidence rate at the northern and eastern part of Henan,while lower incidence rate at the eastern and southern part. Wavelet analysis shows that there was no periodicity of locust plague during this period. Gutenberg-Richard relations occurrs in the relationship between the frequency and the scale of locust plague. It is possible that locust plague occurrs in either cold or warm period,which means locust plague is insignificantly affected by temperature change. Nevertheless,locust plague has a strong relationship with precipitation and presents a positive correlation with drought.

关 键 词：蝗灾 时空特征 气候变化 明清时期 河南 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] K248[农业科学—植物保护]