中国自然灾害社会脆弱性时空格局演化研究  

Spatio-temporal evolution of social vulnerability to natural hazards in China

作　　者：贺帅[1,2] 杨赛霓[1,2] 汪伟平[1,2] 石蜜蜜 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第3期299-305,共7页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)

基　　金：科技部国际科技合作计划资助项目(2012DFG20710);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2012CB955402)

摘　　要：基于社会脆弱性的理论内涵,本文综合考虑社会结构的10个方面影响,构建中国社会脆弱性综合评价指标体系,利用多元因子分析方法(MFA),对1991—2010年省域社会脆弱性进行综合评价,分析其时空演变.结果表明:从空间上看,中国自然灾害社会脆弱性格局较稳定,呈西高东低、梯度递减的分布规律;从时间上看,社会脆弱性总体呈下降趋势,空间依赖程度呈增长趋势;从影响因素上看,人口、社会保障、教育水平和社会文化、社会医疗及基础设施影响较显著,经济水平、土地利用状况影响相对次要,应对和适应能力的提升能有效降低区域社会脆弱性.该研究为区域防灾减灾能力建设与可持续发展提供了理论参考.An integrated assessment system for social vulnerability of natural disaster was developed with indices from 10 aspects of social structure.Multi-factor analysis was used to comprehensively assess provincial social vulnerability from 1991-2010,and to extensively analyze its spatio-temporal evolution.It was found that spatially the overall pattern of natural disaster social vulnerability in China is stable,with a high-west-low-east and gradient spatial distribution.Temporally the overall social vulnerability is decreasing,and the spatialdependency is increasing.Population,social security,education,culture,medical service and infrastructure are the major factors influencing social vulnerability,while the influence of economic development and land use is less important.These results will help to support regional sustainable development and capacity building of disaster prevention and reduction.

关 键 词：自然灾害 社会脆弱性 多重因子分析 时空格局演变 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]