基于Logistic回归模型的农户宅基地置换效果影响因素研究——以上海市嘉定区外冈镇宅基地置换为例  

Factors influencing the effect of rural residence replacement based on Logistic regression modeling for Waigang,Shanghai

作　　者：周小平[1] 王情[1] 谷晓坤[2] 钱辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875 [2]浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院,杭州310018 [3]浙江大学城市学院,杭州310015

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第2期258-264,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学青年基金项目:"耕地保护补偿标准及其实施效应研究"(编号:71003008);国家自然科学面上基金项目:"基于效力预测的耕地补偿区域与主体分配方案制定方法研究"(编号:71273033);国家自然科学基金青年项目:"都市郊区乡村空间重构的微观响应机制研究"(编号:71003036)

摘　　要：从农户个人及家庭特征、宅基地特征、安置房特征、生活条件特征和政策相关特征等5个方面的14个因素入手,运用Logistic回归模型,分析农户宅基地置换效果的影响因素。研究表明:1农户宅基地置换效果的影响因素包括个人及家庭特征、安置房特征、生活条件特征与政策相关特征这4个维度的8个变量,且与宅基地置换效果表现为显著正相关;2按照影响程度排序为:职业培训>受教育程度>征求意见>安置房面积>政策感知>社会保障>原家庭年总收入>区位交通。提出建议:为提高农户宅基地置换的积极性与满意度,政府应加大政策普及力度、赋予利益诉求机会、保障居住生活条件、完善社会保障体系、加强再就业指导工作。‘Linking the Increase for Urban Construction Land with the Decrease for Rural Construction Land'is a new pattern in China and rural residence replacement has become an important source for this policy. Many provinces are conducting pilots on this practice and researchers are evaluating its effectiveness and feasibility. The purpose of this paper is to determine the influential factors affecting farmers' rural residence replacement using a logistic regression model including farmers and family characteristics,homestead features,and resettlement housing characteristics. Our data is based on a survey of 316 farmers about rural residence replacement in Waigang,Jiading District,Shanghai. We found that the effect of rural residence replacement is influenced by eight variables in four dimensions and is positively correlated with farmers and family characteristics,resettlement housing characteristics,living conditions characteristics and policy- related characteristics. In accordance with impact,the sorting is:vocational training >education > solicit views > resettlement housing area > policy perception > social security >original annual income > location and transportation. The re- employment problem is the focus of farmers whom participate in rural residence replacement,and the protection of farmers' quality of life after replacement is the key to compensation. However,propaganda and communication of the rural residence replacement policy is indispensable so we suggest that for farmers involved in rural residence replacement,the government should increase the popularity efforts of the policy,provide the opportunity of interest demands,safeguard living conditions,improve the social security system and strengthen employment guidance.

关 键 词：宅基地 置换效果 LOGISTIC回归模型 上海市嘉定区外冈镇 

分 类 号：F301.3[经济管理—产业经济] F224