1961-2012年云南省极端气温时空演变规律研究  

Temporal and spatial distribution and variation of extreme temperatures in Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2012

作　　者：张万诚[1] 郑建萌[2] 马涛[1] 任菊章[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,昆明650034 [2]云南省气候中心,昆明650034

出　　处：《资源科学》2015年第4期710-722,共13页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(U1133603);国家自然科学基金项目(41440034;41365007);国家科技计划项目(2011DFG23450)

摘　　要：利用云南省122个气象观测站1961-2012年逐月极值气温资料,采用线性趋势分析等方法分析1961-2012年云南省四季和年极端气温的变化趋势特征。结果表明:低纬高原地区年平均最高(最低)气温及四季最高(最低)气温的空间分布呈现北低南高的形式,整体上从滇西北向南随纬度的降低而增加,表现出明显的地区差异,最高(最低)气温的高值区域主要分布在河谷地区、云南南部地区,最高气温和最低气温的分布特征不仅受复杂地形的影响,而且还与观测站的海拔高度有关。最高(最低)气温低值区域主要分布在滇西北、滇东北;云南年平均最高气温与夏、秋、冬季最高气温的变化趋势基本相似,春季最高(最低)气温的变化具有明显的区域特征。除局部地区有降温外,升温趋势是最大的特点,升温最快的区域在滇西北。云南最高气温和最低气温的变化均呈明显的增温趋势,而最低气温的变化速度比最高气温的升温幅度快,说明云南的冷事件在减少,暖事件在增多。最高气温和最低气温的突变时间分别发生在2001年和1993年,最高气温的极大值出现在2010年,而最低气温的最大值也发生在2010年。不同气候类型代表站极端气温具有年代际和年际变化周期;极端气温发生的突变时间不同,而部分代表站的极端气温并未发生突变。We applied linear trend analysis methods to annual and seasonal change characters of maximum and minimum extreme temperature of 122 weather stations in Yunnan province during1961-2012. We found that the annual mean and seasonal maximum(minimum)temperatures have obvious regional characteristics. Specifically,extreme temperatures are low in the northern part and high in the southern region. Although the temperature always increases when latitude decreases,the high value areas of extreme temperatures are mainly located in northern valleys and southern Yunnan. The results demonstrate that the maximum(minimum) temperature spatial characteristics are not only affected by complex topography,but also related to the altitude of monitoring stations. The spring maximum(minimum) temperature had different features in different regions while the annual mean maximum temperature of the whole province showed similar trends across summer,autumn and winter. Except for some distinct areas,the mean temperatures of the whole province increased and the northwest region shows the highest value. At the same time,the maximum and minimum temperature in Yunnan showed a significant warming trend,while the minimum temperature increases faster than the maximum temperature. This may indicate that cold events are decreasing and warm events increasing in Yunnan. The abrupt increase year is 2001 for the maximum temperature and 1993 for the minimum temperature,while the highest values for both occurred in 2010. In addition,the abrupt change points and decadal and inter-annual variation in extreme temperatures at different types of climate stations are different.There still some stations that do not show any abrupt change in extreme temperature.

关 键 词：极端气温 变化趋势 突变 空间分布 云南省 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]