雷达-雨量计联合估测区域降水量方法检验与评估  

Verification and Assessment of Regional Rainfall Estimation by Using Radar and Rain-Gauge

作　　者：李建通 李柏[2] 杨洪平[2] 刘晓阳[3] 张玲 郭林 

机构地区：[1]厦门市气象局,厦门361012 [2]中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081 [3]北京大学物理学院大气科学系,北京100029

出　　处：《气象》2015年第2期200-211,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局"新一代天气雷达定量估测降水技术推广"项目资助

摘　　要：文章在"黄河淮河流域暴雨洪水预报系统"项目试验整理的高密度地面雨量站网数据和雷达连续采集体积扫描数据基础上,首次提出了对稠密雨量站网数据科学分组的方法,并采用分组数据对雷达-雨量计联合校准的10种方法进行了多参数的客观检验和评估。研究表明:(1)雨量站分组方法科学合理,可以满足评估的要求;(2)集成法估测区域降水量好于其他非集成的8种方法;(3)雷达对不同降水强度的估测精度具有三段式分布特征;(4)50~100 km为雷达估测降水的最佳区间,150~200 km区间的估测精度最差;(5)通过时间累积,可以提高各种估测方法区域降水量估测的精度和稳定度。The paper first proposes a sicentific grouping method for the data of dense rainfall station network by using high density surface rainfall station network data and volume scanning data continuously gathered by radar,which were collected from the experiment of the project 'the Rainstorm Flood Forecasting System in the Huang-Huai River Basin'.Moreover,more than ten calibration methods which use radar and rain-gauge are objectively tested and assessed with multi-parameters by using grouped data.This study results show that:(1) The grouping method of rainfall station is scientific and reasonable,satisfying the request of assessment.(2) The integration method for regional rainfall estimation is better than the other 8 methods without integration.(3) Estimation accuracy by using radar features three-phase distribution.(4) The range 50 — 100 km is the ideal for precipitation estimation while the range between 150 and 200 km is poor.(5) Accuracy and stability of region precipitation estimation method can be improved through long-time practice.

关 键 词：雷达 估测降水 模式集成法 检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]